光華講壇——社會名流與企業家論壇第6584期

主題：Quantitative economic history of the Qing Dynasty and modern banking development of China (清代量化經濟史與中國現代銀行的發展)

主講人：蘇州大學 顧乾坤 副教授

主持人：西南財經大學 黃健 副教授

時間：2024-6-21 10:00-11:00

會議地點：西南財經大學柳林校區誠正樓650會議室

主辦單位：西南財經大學會計學院

主講人簡介：

顧乾坤是香港中文大學商學院金融學博士，蘇州大學商學院副教授。他的研究方向包括公司財務、家族企業、經濟史。顧乾坤的研究成果發表在Journal of Law and Economics，International Review of Financial Analysis, Accounting and Finance，Economic Modelling，China Journal of Accounting Research，Finance Research Letters，Emerging Markets Finance and Trade，Asia-Pacific Economic History Review，經濟管理，新財富等國內外期刊。他主持一項國家自然科學基金，參與多項國家級和省部級課題。獲得第五屆香樟金融學論壇優秀論文獎，第五屆“中國工業經濟學會青年杯”提名獎。擔任Economic Modelling, International Journal of Finance & Economics, Pacific Basin Finance Journal, Finance Research Letters, China Journal of Accounting Research，China Journal of Accounting Studies, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Pacific Economic Review，Economic Analysis and Policy，《經濟管理》等刊物的匿名審稿人。他還是Family Glory家族企業研究助理，參與多家上市家族企業的商業咨詢。

內容簡介：The Qing Dynasty, being the most recent feudal dynasty in China's history, marked the beginning of the transformative period of China's modern history at its end. Quantifying the history of the Qing Dynasty and examining its impact on China's financial development is pivotal for understanding the relative lag in the development of China's modern financial markets and the Great Divergence between China and the West. Using modern banking data from 1896 to 1936 as a measure of financial development, we analyze the effect of the literary policy changes by comparing regions that involved in the literary policy changes with adjacent regions that did not. The results reveal that the literary policy changes significantly reduced the number of modern banks, and this effect remains significant even after controlling for geographic, economic, cultural, and political variables. By using the distance to the hometowns of four prominent scholars from the late Ming and early Qing periods as an instrumental variable, we find the effect of the literary policy remains robust. Our mechanism analysis indicates that the impact of the literary policy was primarily achieved through the weakening of social capital and the reduction of external financing demand, which further increased market interest rates and the incidence of emergency loans. Additionally, our findings suggest that the mitigating effects of modern technological shocks (the telegraph and the postal network) on the negative impact of the literary policy changes are effective in the short term but not in the long term.

清代是距今最近的封建王朝，清朝末年拉開了波瀾壯闊的中國近現代史。量化清代歷史，研究其是否對中國金融發展產生影響，對于理解中國現代金融市場發展的相對滯后以及中國與西方之間的“大分流”具有重要意義。使用1896年至1936年現代銀行數據作為金融發展的衡量指標，我們比較了在清代涉及文字政策變更的地區與相鄰未涉及文字政策變更的地區，以研究清代政策對現今金融發展的效應。結果顯示，政策發生變更的地區顯著減少了現代銀行的數量，即使在控制地理、經濟、文化和政治變量后，這一負面影響依然顯著。通過使用晚明和清初四位著名學者的故鄉距離作為工具變量，我們發現文字政策變更的影響仍然穩健。機制分析表明，文字政策變更的影響主要通過削弱社會資本和減少外部融資需求實現，這進一步提高了市場利率和應急貸款的發生率。此外，我們的研究還表明，現代技術沖擊（如電報和郵政網絡）在短期內對文字政策變更影響的緩解效果顯著，但在長期內則不明顯。